Surprisingly logical replies so far (except for the person claiming something insane about me silencing people).
So please, ask me anything or tell me why you think the US is "going bankrupt" or the Federal Reserve "prints money" or fiat is dead or petrodollar or the implosion of the dollar, and I will respond.
I can't speak for the rest of the forum, but I don't think any of those things, except perhaps for the implosion of the dollar. Though I don't think it's going to happen anytime
soon, of course, or that it'll be so sudden that nothing can be done about it when it happens.
Curious to hear why you think that is?
The truth is that a local currency is almost always dependent on inflation to keep its value - that is why people would not accept UST at a low rate, they will want higher rates to justify the higher inflation - and
the US does NOT have an inflation problem, nor does most of the developed world. In fact, it is quite the opposite. This is probably the most important issue here that people are saying will happen - a hyper-inflationary spiral which kills the USD. I think we should talk more about this because it is pretty important!
As long as the rest of the world believes that our government can tax citizens and pay interest on its debt, the international community will have a demand for dollars. Demand for dollars is not only buying and selling of goods - most of the time it is transfer of US Treasurys, which act as cash equivalents. So if people think they will get paid back on their UST, they will have no problem dealing with the US and holding our debt. And this payments, we agree, will always be made.
In the past countries "blow up their FX" because their economy relies too much on one product - like oil and Russia or agriculture and Argentina in the mid 1900s or Venezuela today - or rely too much on foreign capital flows to operate - like many countries during the Asian Currency Crisis of 1997/1998. The US does not have this problem. If you think the USD will collapse, I assume you think that many many other countries will have gone down first, since the USD is the most stable, liquid and widely accepted form of payment in the world (again payments are usually in UST, not dollars for candy bars, on aggregate).