You must be crazy. I'm not going to reveal my true identity, because I'll probably just be banned again. There are still many people on this forum who are butt hurt that all my so called saber rattling turned out to be spot on analysis. I don't care how many people drew lines on graphs to present their ideas of support and trend lines... it all turned out to be bullshit. You need to read between the lines to figure out where this market is going, and that's something that you still need to learn for yourself. I'm real impressed that you made one correct guess back in 2013, but that was a long time ago.

You've gotta accept that if you create a new thread with a prediction of $560,000 by end of 2015, somebody is going to call you out on it.

So the number I have picked is probably not that accurate. The magnitude, and the colossal unbeleivableness of it, is what is important. That's the black swan that nobody sees coming. That 90% of the people in the world will miss 90% of the bitcoin.

Once again the figures aren't right, its the magnitude of the moves you might have to go through that is the message.

The values aren't really supposed to be accurate, both time and price axis are kind of arbitrary (as per assumptions in the first post of 10years and 300k) it's more about the scale of movement that has to happen to reach an arbitrary end price based on this kind of model. In the chart I posted as an example though the x axis is days. So ther is about 3650 in 10 years give or take

The actual outcomes could be very different depending on whether a cycle lines up with the max rate of adoption in the s-curve. What I posted was just a shot in the dark based on one set of inputs. A surprising one admittedly but it shows the kind of crazy range of possibilities.

None of this means I don't still think it *could* go to zero(ish) because if you stop forgetting that then you start behaving irrationally. It just means that I hadn't considered all the possibilities. That I ahd kind of dismissed the crazy talk of btc at 1million dollars, as being a bit loony. I think I was mistaken to close off my mind to that possibility, because if it were to ever happen I would be unprepared.

I had a look on log scale it's a bit jiggly, but I'll post it up in a bit

Why goat my dear fellow, it's wild speculation, implication is in the eye of the beholder. (Not to mention its just the click bait to get people to read the post! You know how it works)

It does represent my belief, that buying and or holding is a good plan (it's what I'm actually doing) but as to whether that is appropriate that's up to the individual reading it.

Now if someone's goal is to make short term profit then this is not the post for them. That's not my goal and I do consistently reiterate that. My goal is to invest a reasonable amount of cash (that I can well afford to lose) in a risky asset class that I happen to think is a game changer. When it looks "cheap" to me I pick up a bit more.

Now, that's a totally digferent agenda to that the chorus of sellers is pushing, but I think it's agood agenda. It's also transparent and honest. I will weather the diatribe all the way to $30 if I have to.