as dark is it looks right now price wise, I still think a lot is happening in terms of adoption, stuff we could have only dreamed of a few years ago (Paypal, Microsoft) so unless something comes up to spoil that - malicious or otherwise - I still think that mass adoption can happen.

I think that will take time, but I think that if it starts to go mainstream then we will see huge swings in dollar valuation of BTC as outlined in OP.

The (time) length of cycles seems to be increasing the last bear market was long. The magnitude of moves up seem to correlate to the length - necessarily so. A bigger move requires more time.

So lets say this is the bottom around $300, and instead of 3 month run up we have a 9 month one, and instead of a x20 move we have a x400 one then all of a sudden $120k is totally possible. throw in the etf and wall st involvement, where money is like water? 580k by november .... I wouldn't bet against it!

(and for those that miss the implied counter position by that statement I wouldn't risk that much betting *for* it either.)