I've tried a couple of times to read and reply to the big wall-of-text post, but didn't get to it yet.
I've been working on code to allow big investors to reduce their counter-party risk by declaring "offsite" coins that they want to invest.
It goes like this (in the prototype):
You have 10k coins. You want to invest them at JD, but you don't want to trust them to a dodgy dice site that might run off with them. You also don't want to contribute to the centralisation of all the CLAMs.
So you deposit 1000 coins, invest them, then in the chat you type "/cold 9000" which means "I have 9000 more coins in at home that I also want to invest". The site takes you at your word, adds another 9k to the bankroll, and you get to risk 0.5% of the 10k total on every roll from now on. The max profit on the site goes up an extra 180 in addition to the 20 it went up when you invested the 1000.
If the site does badly you'll take losses, and they come out of the 1k you deposited. If it ever gets to the point that you can no longer afford for the site to suffer a full max-profit loss without it driving your on-site investment negative, your "/cold" command will be undone, and you'll be left with just whatever is left of your initial 1000 coins invested.
This gives you all the benefits of depositing and investing your full 10k bankroll with only 10% of the counter-party risk.
I've put a rough prototype up at https://doge-dice.com/ for you to try it out. It spams the chat with INFO: lines about upcoming forced divestments and such like, which wouldn't appear in a final release, but I think they help make it clearer what's going on. It also gives you a target to aim for - "if I win just 2k more I can force out of their position" etc.
So I figure it's worth having people play around with it before making any decisions about how and whether to go live with it on JD. The test site uses worthless play coins. You get 100 free with every new account, and people are mostly happy to tip them to you if you run out. Please let me know if you discover any issues with it, and I'd like to hear comments and ideas about how it should be changed before going live on JD.
Currently you can set your "/cold" amount to be anything up to 199 times your actual onsite investment amount, meaning the total of onsite and offsite investments can be up to 200 times your actual onsite amount. Since you risk up to 0.5% of your investment per roll, that means that specifying the maximum of 199 times for the offsite amount is effectively saying you are prepared to risk your entire deposit per roll. That's clearly insane.
Some have suggested that I should pick a nice low maximum multiplier, like 10x or something. But I worry that if the maximum is half sensible then everyone will use it, whether they have coins offsite or not. What should the maximum be?
I notice that with this system there's no way to risk less than 0.5% of your deposit per roll. So how about if we lower the max-profit-percent to 0.1%, and increase the maximum multiplier to 1000x - this gives the same top limit, but allows ultra-conservative people the chance of running at 1/10 Kelly.
Another question is how to distribute the staking rewards. If there are two investors, both deposit 1000 coins, and one uses "/cold 3000" to increase his effective investment to 4000, he now has 80% of the bankroll, and gets 80% of all betting profits and losses. But what about staking rewards? Should he also get 80% of those? Or should they be split in proportion to the actual onsite invested amount, since those are the only coins that are earning staking rewards?
Lots of questions - hopefully I'll get some thoughtful answers...
I've been working on code to allow big investors to reduce their counter-party risk by declaring "offsite" coins that they want to invest.
It goes like this (in the prototype):
You have 10k coins. You want to invest them at JD, but you don't want to trust them to a dodgy dice site that might run off with them. You also don't want to contribute to the centralisation of all the CLAMs.
So you deposit 1000 coins, invest them, then in the chat you type "/cold 9000" which means "I have 9000 more coins in at home that I also want to invest". The site takes you at your word, adds another 9k to the bankroll, and you get to risk 0.5% of the 10k total on every roll from now on. The max profit on the site goes up an extra 180 in addition to the 20 it went up when you invested the 1000.
If the site does badly you'll take losses, and they come out of the 1k you deposited. If it ever gets to the point that you can no longer afford for the site to suffer a full max-profit loss without it driving your on-site investment negative, your "/cold" command will be undone, and you'll be left with just whatever is left of your initial 1000 coins invested.
This gives you all the benefits of depositing and investing your full 10k bankroll with only 10% of the counter-party risk.
I've put a rough prototype up at https://doge-dice.com/ for you to try it out. It spams the chat with INFO: lines about upcoming forced divestments and such like, which wouldn't appear in a final release, but I think they help make it clearer what's going on. It also gives you a target to aim for - "if I win just 2k more I can force out of their position" etc.
So I figure it's worth having people play around with it before making any decisions about how and whether to go live with it on JD. The test site uses worthless play coins. You get 100 free with every new account, and people are mostly happy to tip them to you if you run out. Please let me know if you discover any issues with it, and I'd like to hear comments and ideas about how it should be changed before going live on JD.
Currently you can set your "/cold" amount to be anything up to 199 times your actual onsite investment amount, meaning the total of onsite and offsite investments can be up to 200 times your actual onsite amount. Since you risk up to 0.5% of your investment per roll, that means that specifying the maximum of 199 times for the offsite amount is effectively saying you are prepared to risk your entire deposit per roll. That's clearly insane.
Some have suggested that I should pick a nice low maximum multiplier, like 10x or something. But I worry that if the maximum is half sensible then everyone will use it, whether they have coins offsite or not. What should the maximum be?
I notice that with this system there's no way to risk less than 0.5% of your deposit per roll. So how about if we lower the max-profit-percent to 0.1%, and increase the maximum multiplier to 1000x - this gives the same top limit, but allows ultra-conservative people the chance of running at 1/10 Kelly.
Another question is how to distribute the staking rewards. If there are two investors, both deposit 1000 coins, and one uses "/cold 3000" to increase his effective investment to 4000, he now has 80% of the bankroll, and gets 80% of all betting profits and losses. But what about staking rewards? Should he also get 80% of those? Or should they be split in proportion to the actual onsite invested amount, since those are the only coins that are earning staking rewards?
Lots of questions - hopefully I'll get some thoughtful answers...