The risk is worse on the Pro Pirate side. On the anti Pirate side, much less. Is this what you meant?
For a sane player to take the bet against me, the anti-pirate bond must be 27 times larger than the pro-pirate bond. This is what I meant.
Give it up. You just can't build a logic instrument on bullshit assumptions. Anything involving BS&T and a time-frame of one year or above inserts the fact that believers can multiply their money with a factor of roughly 33 instead of playing. Of course we can't beat that!
But I can. Find a trusted escrow and Ill bet you anything you put in it.