It is quite an enlightening and humbling experience to go back and read some of the earlier speculation/technical analyis in the flurry of Monero threads posted some months ago, around the time-frame of that quote
Negative. Price turns down due to news or no news, coupled with great dumps that smash the support currently at ~400. If no support is found until 290, it breaks the rising bottoms trend, leading to further insecurity. Also Bitcoin starting to rise dramatically could lead to this outcome just because alts typically follow suit a little later. Likelihood 5-10%.
This is indeed what happened (though not the part about BTC up). We can't really say that 5-10% was inaccurate. Only a prediction of 0% would be inaccurate.