Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: the REAL REASON for the collapse of the Bitcoin price
by
inca
on 12/01/2015, 09:58:35 UTC
Or it's falling because 3600 coins a day are released and there's obv not $1 mil/usd flowing into the market on a daily basis to buy those coins. The price of BTC needs to fall ALOT more before it stops falling.

Actually, there was, as long as many of those buyers thought ("greater fool") that it was going "to the moon soon".
Now that it is clear that the moon is at about 400 000 km still, that flow is drying out.

You're willing to pour in a few $ 1 million a day if you think you'll get out 5 or 10 times more in 6 months from now (not realising that this means that people will have then to pour in a few $ 10 million a day, thinking that they will get out 5 or 10 times more 6 months from there, which means that they think tht people will have then to pour in a few $ 100 million a day .....).

The absence of rally in november and december made these people realize that the flow of greater fools was drying out.

The only fundamental price support is by necessary demand, for buying stuff (as a currency) for instance.  Until last year, bitcoin's price was essentially determined by speculative "greater fool soon" hopes.  These are gone now.

Two points. It isn't in miners interest to sell coins at ever lower prices, certainly not in multi thousand coin tranches very suddenly. Simply looking at the price and corresponding volume on the charts tells the simple story that the price is being driven down by heavy selling that is not interested in obtaining best price.

You are entirely wrong saying bitcoin has one fundamental price support, it's use as a nascent currency for medium of exchange. In fact speculation (hoarding) as a store of value with sound money properties are the main source or value and probably will be for decades.

People will flock to bitcoin once the price rises and re enters a bull market again. The trigger could be a price point which cannot be breached by colluding whale traders or some exogenous event.