Whether there will be a new lowest or not does not matter. Panic sell is never a good idea cause you could almost always sell later at better price when there's a rebound. Those sold at 170 could easily sell at 210 now, and that's more than 20% difference.
You can correlate the indicator "oversold" with the "probability that you would have gotten a better price later" for interesting results. Yet even my nearest people fall for the trap, or "pro" celebrities (newsletter-writer Jason Hommel selling out of his mining juniors at the week of the market crash in 2008).
Even worse type are the people who sheepishy think "they could buy back lower" when selling to the crash. First of all, they cannot. It is the most -EV time to commit such an act. Second, they don't have the balls to do it, even if lower prices did materialize (which of course does happen at times). It is only panic sell combined with self-deception, and nobody is exempted from the temptation.
Personally, I need to go through a balls-of-titanium exercise weekly, that is a mental exercise with the idea of walking through "how would I feel if I woke up and saw BTC at $75 (it was $150 some time ago, an unthinkable number
) and what should I do?" It is sometimes advisable to sell a little in the midst of a deep crash, but getting yourself in a position where this actually holds true is almost universally a stupid idea, so it should not apply to you, and definitely does not apply to me.What's so difficult in understanding that BTC falls in the category of investments that are good and brilliant, and +EV, but with such a high probability that you are in the red either temporarily, or just basically lose it all in the end, that you should only invest with the mindset of "seeing it to the river" (the last card, when the winner is not decided by deception, but by who held the upper hand) ?
Why is it that people who were "happy" with $300 some time ago, now suddenly think that the market can sustain half that price (pushing the air-filled ball twice as deep in the water)?
The forces at work may not react immediately, but they will: absorbing new emission now costs half than what it did; my castle can now be sold for half the price I paid for it (rather easy) instead of full price (rather difficult), to still realize a nice gain in BTC, and the amounts involved are huge in context of BTC marketcap, which is tiny.
To stir the pot even more, is there any offers of odds for the bet: "We will not go to $152 ever again" (one week volume-weighted average in major exchanges) ?
