850,000 Total MtGox loss according to rumors (I've never seen this as an official number).
744,405 Total MtGox loss according to Leaked Emergency Plan.
171,995 Amount lost on Bitcoin Savings and Trust.
263,024 Amount Seized from Silk Road by DHS.
207,000 Amount of MtGox Suddenly "Found".
642,019 Sum of the three amounts above.
624,408 Amount of MtGox customers' coins that are "temporarily unavailable".
All three of these events; Bitcoin Savings and Trust, Silk Road, and MtGox are tied together.
I must say that (without my tinfoil hat on) I like your approach. It's based on good old "follow the money" principle. OK, the numbers may not add up perfectly, but it's a pretty close call to be honest. I tend to disagree with your last sentence though. I'd call it wishful thinking, we (myself included) want it to happen, but it won't. The reason is that it will be extremely difficult to find out who is who among the (allegedly) 1M MtGox customers... but then again... you never know!
