That only factors in speculators. Real users of BTC will only care about dumping all their fiat into BTC and sending it to someone who may then convert it back to fiat.

If such real use is a major part of BTC now due things like SR, then a doubling might not be priced in at all before the halving.

If I had spare cash I would still buy in now, but I wouldn't be too surprised to loose on the short term with value going down to 5.5 or so during the summer.