Mh... I don't know about after the bet, but there were a few indications of withdrawals during the week. Some people directly said it (some PMed me and thanked me for speaking my mind), and Pirateat40 seemed to complain about it at one point. It's probably the reason he took the bet. (If he's legit or running much longer, the bet is a loss for him, because I could hedge against BS&T itself and win in all cases.)

In addition, his erratic post about showing up before DefCon popped up just when things had heated up. The rate changes themselves came after I'd been pushy on IRC. It's quite a bit for "just a coincidence," more likely all the timings are controlled by deposit-withdrawal statistics, and the forum show is important. The Currin Trading story is supporting this suspicion, the operator there was very intent on keeping the climate positive.

Edit: Don't forget that, at the same relative size, withdrawals weigh more than deposits! This is one of the counter-intuitive implications of printing money.



Do not ask Pirateat40 about statistics, that is pointless. The real growth curve would clearly show what is going on, complete with absurdly large BTC accounts in it; if ever, you only get to see that in the end. Remember that Carlo Ponzi himself was serving drinks to his customers while they were lining up in panic to cause his default. He seemed unfazed until the very end. You will not notice it easily when such people make things up.



Interesting! Where did you get that data? Are we talking about last week here?

On a side note, how come this information did not make you suspicious? These funds, in theory, come with quite the obligation.