3) New investment vehicle for the average user through finally an ETF. This will stabilize the price and result in a net inflow of fiat. This will be POSITIVE.
They have been trying to do this since 2012 and still haven't moved further along. Why would it change this year? The hoops to jump through are many, and the actual info (let alone positive info) are few and far between. It could happen, but don't base 20% of your annual prediction on this yet unknown.
Another thing, there is no proof that they will ever buy another Bitcoin for the fund. The net inflow would be to the ETF with the possibility of a bit of overflow into the actual underlying asset. I'm sure they will want to recoup some of their costs incurred over the last 2+ years, trying to make this a reality.