hey Vandroiy, can i ask why you are not hedging your bet?? 66BTC at 65 weeks is all it would take...
seems rather illogical not to.
seems rather illogical not to.
No. I'm clear on my stance, my BS&T exposure is and remains zero.
It's illogical for the same reason you don't play the Ponzi in the first place. No half-assed nonsense on my part.
If your certainty about him being a Ponzi is anything less than 100% (and you said it was 98% last time I asked you), it isn't necessarily illogical to hedge. To be really simplistic about it, you think that there's a 1/50 chance you'll lose 5000 btc and and a 49/50 chance you'll get 10000. Simple expected value will value your "bet portfolio" at 9700 btc at maturity, but your one-year 2% value at risk is 0. Both of those could improve, depending on your model of his default probabilities over time, if you were willing to hedge
So basically, "DAMMIT THE PONZI IS COLLAPSING AND I NEED YOU TO DEPOSIT YOUR MONEY INTO IT, OTHERWISE I CAN'T GET MINE OUT".