Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
mestar
on 01/02/2015, 07:57:19 UTC
...  velocity of money ...
What's interesting about money velocity is it's range. Average time bitcoin is held can vary from 10 minutes (confirmation time) to 20 years (retirement money), that is in million times. That is if bitcoin perception in user's mind changes from "hot potato" to "gold", it price will increase million-fold.


Once you decide to hodl, you do not influence the price of bitcoins.  The price is decided by those that trade on the exchanges. 

Currently, those are speculative buyers, speculative sellers,  buying to 'transact', selling to close the 'transact' loop,  and daily $700,000 (or less) that miners have to sell to pay for running costs.

Third and fourth on that list should be equal.  So, once the first and second items on that list become equal, (and there is no reason why speculative buying would have to be higher that speculative selling), the only way the price of bitcoin will go is down.  Miners do have real bills to pay.




Holders do affect price! Just imagine a scenario, where everyone who bought a bitcoin would hold. Price would skyrocket. The only way a new buyer could get bitcoin is to find the first holder who partakes his btc at a given highest bidding price (that is market essentially). Every holder is a potential seller, there is no economic theory to exclude holders from the "seller" position.

Until your orders, either bids or asks, hit an exchange, you are not influencing the bitcoin price.

If you allow your indirect price influence, then every person in the world is responsible for bitcoin price not being higher by doing nothing.  I personaly hold Markus Persson responsible for low bitcoin price, because he did not spend at least one Billion dollars on bitcoins.

If everyone who bought bitcoins is holding, sure the price would skyrocket, yet, the price would still be decided only by those that decided to sell.