Both forks will be worthless. There will be no winning fork.
That's also a very likely possibility, but only if everything splits into 2.
If 90% people go with the fork, the ones left behind will lose though.
people will dump their bitcoin before the fork occures because nobody will want to take the risk
bottom line: you fork without consensus, you're toast
(the most simple form of consensus means: you get no veto for your proposal. In case a proposal gets a veto it need to be changed - that's consensus principle. You can't just shove your porposal down everyones' throat like you would love to. There is also more advanced consensus principles where you can calculate from different proposals the ones that meet the least resistance but since you are all pigs i don't care to help you more. You need to educate yourselves. Getting to a consensus in a group is very easy to do once you understand how. Most people have no idea. People tend to engage in war before finding consensus, haha)