You mis-interpreted my post. My point was with 20MB blocks, you will no longer be able to host a node on consumer Internet Plans. The important number was not the 2Mbps download, but the 4Mbps upload. BTW, to get those numbers, I simply multiplied my former node's bandwidth usage by 20.
By the time blocks get to being 20MB in size, what internet speed will be common? And what processing power? Remember, for 20MB blocks bitcoin network needs 84K transactions per block! When will we get there?
This needs repeating again, and again, because many here are thinking that we will have 20MB blocks added to blockchain the very moment the block limit is raised. Calm down. Average block size is now 0.35MB,
https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-sizeFor my calculation above, I was assuming the blocks would be about 20x larger. Since the current blocks are about 35% full, we are talking about 5-7MB blocks in the above scenario. I don't claim to know exactly how long it would take for blocks to get to that size. However, a rule of thumb is that information expands to fill the available space. That is to say, making the block-size larger
does encourage more transaction. If I had to guess, I would say we can expect the first full 20MB block within 5 years.
I also would not be surprised if Bitcoin transaction growth grows faster than common Internet bandwidth: at least in the near term.
- About 15 years ago, I was on 56Kbps down, 30kbps up dial-up. (~10GB bandwidth cap, with less than 1-3GB of usage expected) (not really comparable).
- About 10 years ago I was on 3Mbps down, 640kbps up ADSL. 70GB cap.
- About 5 years ago, I was on 6Mbps down, 1Mbps up ADSL/VDSL. 100GB cap
- Now I am on 25Mbps down, 2.5Mbps up Cable. 250GB cap.
- If the rough trend continues, I will be on 50Mbps down and 5Mbps up in 5 years. 500-750GB cap.
Disclaimer: those numbers are not terribly consistent. The underlying technology and even price has changed over the years.