Re: Greece: Greenspan predicts exit from euro inevitable

Quote

Mr Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, said: "I believe [Greece] will eventually leave. I don't think it helps them or the rest of the eurozone - it is just a matter of time before everyone recognises that parting is the best strategy.

"The problem is that there there is no way that I can conceive of the euro of continuing, unless and until all of the members of eurozone become politically integrated - actually even just fiscally integrated won't do it."

more here : http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31249907

I think the Greece will never go out from the Europe, what do you think guys ?

I'm not so sure about Greece reforming itself enough to keep her EMU membership. Greece due to her own geography have difficulties in collecting taxes (1, 2) and concentrating capital in accordance with the needs of the state. Also due to the same financial constraints the question for Greece is whether it will be able to accept its much-reduced geopolitical role. Reducing the huge defence budget require an agreement with Turkey so that Greece have not to see Turkey as an existential threat anymore; however, this is easy said than done (3, 4). Alternatively, Greece needs to find a way to become useful again to one or more great powers - as an example her recent try to court Russia - so to receive from them financial subsidies (5).

You say the Greeks are courting a Russian bailout? My guess is the Bear is in no position to bail out anybody. When times get tough go to war - it's a simple solution to unemployment especially in the defense economy sector.

Maybe someday after petroleum is all pumped and burned, the EU will become a de facto satellite of Russia or freeze. Not going to see a trans-Atlantic natural gas pipeline anytime soon.

Greeks are playing the Russian card since now Russia and NATO members are engaged in a new Cold War, so Greece can received its subsidies from one side or both. How about Russia further breaking up NATO weak cohesion? How far are the United States or European NATO members going deep in their pockets to prevent this from happening?

You call a future in which the EU may become a de facto satellite of Russia but the United States fought multiple wars to prevent the emergence of an hegemon on the Eurasian landmass. According to Mackinder's Heartland Theory United States have to prevent the link up of German & EU Technologies with Russian resources and Manpower just to prevent the emergence of such an hegemon

Would the Germans ever consider allying with Russians after WWII? Germans were at the forefront of the US and Soviet space programs. The Soviets went into Vienna having the first satellite ahead of the US. This allowed JFK to pop a quick question of a joint trip the the moon. NK quickly replied NO. JFK dropped it. Before that day's conference was over NK was already trying to backtrack on that answer. JFK wouldn't ask again. I suspect the Soviets were upset not only at the US at the Germans as well. And consider the experience of the East Germans. No. I don't think a linkup of German and Russians is in the cards.