Makes some sense. When I get stats v2 up going I'll be sure to include share counts for orphaned blocks on the API side for this purpose.
Great! Post here when you do? In the meantime I'm using an estimate based on the ratio of block durations.
On the front end side, though, I definitely think the current method is more towards what someone wants to see as a "luck" stat.
For most miners, that's true. However on the odd occasion we have "Vladimir vs BTC Guild" style kerfuffles, you can show someone immediately how likely luck is over any given number of blocks. In fact having the current 'luck' side-by-side with the CDF might not be a bad idea?
In both cases of Eligius and BTC Guild, the % doesn't relate directly to the payout anyway (me also of course)
In Eligius the backpay PPS thingy means your max pay is 100% PPS no matter how good the luck is.
In BTC Guild the shifts mean that you'd need to look across all shifts in the payout to make any use of the luck % (being inverted from share %) and invert it then avg it then invert it again ... to get a number that is related ... so yeah almost no one does that in their head

Share% seems a lot clearer IMO and way less prone to misunderstanding - and yes as you know I also have CDF also thanks to your help on that
