What i dont understant is the certainty that both coins/forks are gonna live. If lets say 80% of all Hashingpower switch to the new Fork the old work will get stuck at a very high difficulty so transactions will take 100 minutes. This will cause more miners to switch until the fork is practically death/useless.
And i think if a fork will ever happen it will be made sure that at least 80% of the miners are behind this decision.
Well, that's the beauty. If the 'old' version really retains 20% of the hashing power and people do keep it alive, the difficulty will adjust itself accordingly after some time. If more and more people actually switch to the 'new' version, the hard fork was indeed 'successful'. Thing is: It doesn't matter

Thats the point: this might not be the case. Lets asume that the next adjustment is like 10 Days away. If you only have 20% hashing power left that means, it would take 100days! This will scare away even more hashing power which will lead to even more time needed. So technically: yes a single CPU miner might can mine its way to the next adjustment but this may take years or decades. After all this time, even if the old fork got adjusted noone is interested in it anymore.