Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
what is your opinion on grexit? is it going to happen? will they let us leave eurozone? and if so, will this affect the price of bitcoin?
Nobody wants a grexit, not even Syriza. But something has to give soon, if Greece gets IMF on their side it might be difficult for the creditor nations to resist some kind of debt relief, but what form and what size is impossible to know right now.
Grexit will happen because there are three outcomes and grexit is the not the worst case scenario for either side. Possibilities:
1)Greek bank run with no bail-out leading to collapse of economy and government
2) Writedowns/write offs of Greek debt leading several other countries to re-negotiate austerity terms and massive losses to sovereign debt-holders.
3) Grexit.
It's going to happen. The only real question is "when?"
the EU's new round of QE is a round of desperation. The problem seems to be that the greeks are publicly admitting they are bankrupt and they cannot pay their debt. If they continue the road they are on with austerities then the greek people will suffer for years and years and possibly even more years. If the greeks default then everyone holding their debt will lose. If the EU gives in to restructuring greek debt without austerities then other EU countries will want the same treatment. If the greek exit the EU then we will could start to see a stampede out of the EU by other countries facing the same problems. I think we are watching the start of the world economic crisis.
If they "restructure" the debt of especially Greece and Portugal to a point where the debts are realistically manageable, the EU might avoid a recession which would be far more costly than any concessions they can possibly make to those two countries.
However, to your last point: I fear so too. The German Juggernaut and their north european co-creditors are not ready to make sufficient concessions. They have been spending the last seven years showing their own population how tough and ruthless they can be to Greece instead of preparing them for a situation where concessions might be needed. That kind of irrational shortsightedness might have already sent us off the cliff.