Re: Anonibet Official Thread - Gold Member of Bitcoin Foundation
You are preaching to the choir on the math. The fact you can arb with that bonus goes without saying. Seeing the bonus though I quickly figured this is like betting even money on their own markets, effective overround of 100%. Then noticed they use 1.90 at best on the 2-way markets that I looked at first. But still that's only a 0.50% advantage. If it was a onetime offer with with multi-account prevention I could swallow this. But the fact they fact they give you a bonus on every single deposit, no bookmaker could sustain risk management on that, and no smart player would ever bet their odds not having a bonus. This creates the situation where the site is left deciding after the fact what is bonus abuse and what is not. So my first glance opinion is that this is a scary site to bet at for players with a clue. My post was looking for specific examples of what constitutes bonus abuse (that part wasn't replied to) and if I got the example correct or not.
Let me tell you with an example.
Event: Anderlecht vs KAA Gent
https://www.anonibet.com/match.aspx?gm_id=907904
http://www.directbet.eu/Event.cshtml?EventID=27361017
Anonibet Under 5.5: 1.02
Directbet Over 5.5: 20
Max. Payout for the event at Anonibet : 2100 mBTC
1) Open https://en.surebet.com/calculator
2) Enter odds 1.122 (which we multiply 1.02 x 1.10 - that comes from deposit bonus) and 20, respectively. You have a 6.24% surebet now!
3) Enter 2174.32 for total stake.
You'll see the distribution of your stake as 2058.82 and 115.50, respectively.
4) Now, divide each of these stakes with 1.10 and you have 1871.65 and 105 mBTC to bet. Your total cost for this event is : 1976.65 mBTC, Deposit these amounts to relevant bookies and you have a surebet.
5) Let's see the payout.
If the event outcome is under 5.5, we will have 2100 mBTC from Anonibet. (1912.83 mBTC + 187.165 mBTC Bonus)
If the event outcome is over 5.5, we will have 2100 mBTC from Directbet.
Repeat the procedure for the future events until you lose at Anonibet for profit taking and pray for the outsider. You can also adjust your stake unevenly based on your guess. Since they have been using FIFO method, you will eventually take profit. For further reading: http://anonibet.tumblr.com/post/97885053360/anonibet-10-instant-deposit-bonus
For tips: 19EmupYAX8kWaj2uhoFMNAWgTiNCNi1k7S
I'll be waiting for Mr. Hoshford's tip, especially
