Hi

Counting the major surges alone, we have set a new ATH at $32, $266 and $1242

I do not know the reasons for surge 1 and 2 ( and would by the way like to know) but it seems clear that gox used manipulation to achieve the third. I know speculators came in but I see it as different somehow.

ie as the market either gets more regulated and/or wiser to being conned there will be less manipulation and less effect when it happens in places like exchanges

so should in trying to forecast you should only be using "genuine" speculation movements? I realise they may be moving the price on false external information but at least it is not the exchange itself that is doing the manipulating?