I realize many more things now than as little as a year or two ago.
It's called "experience".
It's called "experience".
I would be curious to know if you discussed future price movements at the recent bitcoin invite-only retreat rpietila?
Of course I did. The whole thread is because of that!
The price is more behind the best-fitting trend than at any time in history, so either Bitcoin is going to die, or revert to the trend (or something in between ofc). The EV calc strongly favors investing now.
Another thing that strengthened my conviction was that some of the guys there were actually short. You know, when guys of that caliber are short, and they cover, it's going to have an effect on the price. They are not fools, they had better information and balls than I did a year ago, to actually go short instead of just lightening up, but also they are not fools to destroy themselves when the price goes back up. 300-350 was mentioned as the mental stop loss zone that marks the end of the downtrend and triggers short covering.