Just under 100 blocks to go before difficulty change.
is there a way to calculate (or even estimate) what it will
change to?
yes..
you look for block height h.. now we find h = 44270
you take the time difference d = blocktime( h ) - blocktime ( h - 2016 )
getblockhash 44270
0000000000000003a445aeeaae096b2139cd113a5f7cf5b514108222506bd520
getblock 0000000000000003a445aeeaae096b2139cd113a5f7cf5b514108222506bd520
{
"hash" : "0000000000000003a445aeeaae096b2139cd113a5f7cf5b514108222506bd520",
"confirmations" : 1,
"size" : 509,
"height" : 44270,
"version" : 2,
"merkleroot" : "ba972b1df85bdddc912e0dc7de48834bd233bf5227eed90e22efa90e220d7330",
"tx" : [
"4bbc5ca6373a8273393d36290d0e0b0f9539ab2405d3f22b262cf0dd62e64d13",
"50c66e42d38bacb9bb3a2b7873562d0b4bfa71d233236ebe14e7dcd01ed450bc"
],
"time" : 1424720066,
"nonce" : 259376290,
"bits" : "195040c0",
"difficulty" : 53517071.29850692,
"previousblockhash" : "000000000000003548d57d3514b94ad25c70a1c1181052473bfee1f14cdfef21"
}
getblockhash 42254
0000000000000118e448a3275476be15441730feeffbfd3df2df535634995ad8
getblock 0000000000000118e448a3275476be15441730feeffbfd3df2df535634995ad8
{
"hash" : "0000000000000118e448a3275476be15441730feeffbfd3df2df535634995ad8",
"confirmations" : 2017,
"size" : 239,
"height" : 42254,
"version" : 2,
"merkleroot" : "471dab79d03a223d0e3a43e8149ae1345cf1cc9623d8970b3e1823ec3a9886de",
"tx" : [
"471dab79d03a223d0e3a43e8149ae1345cf1cc9623d8970b3e1823ec3a9886de"
],
"time" : 1422656405,
"nonce" : 2158012256,
"bits" : "1a014103",
"difficulty" : 13379267.82462673,
"previousblockhash" : "000000000000008ece91a484f2b689cf8e314c97b136e70b95e3856c91c04d58",
"nextblockhash" : "0000000000000124efe7bf1f2103d02a75035e7d56d9d2dfa7d64cf81eb1353b"
}
so d = 1424720066 - 1422656405 = 2063661 seconds
d = real time for 2016 blocks
expected time e = 2016 * 300 seconds = 604800
d /e = 3.41
we took longer than planed, difficulty will now go down
so if i did everything correctly, difficulty will drop by factor 3.41 !
d = 53517071 / 3.41 = 15694155
( if adjustment was now.. will change in next 100 blocks )