@rpietila
what is your opinion about the price for 1 xmr in about 2-3 Years and the same for DRK?
Thank´s for your answer
"My opinion" can only be defined as "my estimate of the probabilities of various scenarios", and Expected Value can be calculated out of it. The problem with this approach is similar to someone asking a poker player: "What is your opinion, do you win this round?" Poker is not played out of opinion, but out of rigorous mathematical probabilities, coupled with psychology concerning the read of the opponent. Predicting the prices of Crypto is even harder since there are no rigorous probabilities that all would agree.
That said, I give about 50% chance that XMR will totally fail (be valued essentially at zero) in 2-3 years. The other 50% would be about:
- 10% valued at the same as now
- 10% valued at $1
- 10% valued at $2-5
- 10% valued at ~$10
- 10% valued at much more.
I cannot really give estimate on DRK. It currently has a higher marketcap than XMR but I haven't invested anything in it. I am not against premine but the way DRK is presenting theirs is unethical to my standards.
I think that with the continued support of as few as 10-20 middle-class (or higher) people and one XMR core developer, we can maintain the current market cap and liquidity.
Also, don't forget that many of XMR's supporters have even bigger investments in bitcoin. If bitcoin does well, then those 10-20 middle-class XMR core-supporters become heavies. 10 heavies supporting a coin with superior technology which already has all the essentials.
I'd say that the chance of total failure is less than 20%. In that sense I'm more optimistic than you. At the same time, I'd say that the chance of a 4000 billion dollar cryptocurrency market is much less than 1%. Perhaps closer to 0.1%. In that sense, I'm more pessimistic than you. However, these subjective differences don't really change the nature of the bet.