Your link doesn't show 10 min.
There is other logic behind 5 min. I took 7.5 average time and removed low-priority transactions (majority of which are without fees).
PS: Flat difficulty math is useless, we are talking about the real world, not about spherical horse in vacuum.
There is other logic behind 5 min. I took 7.5 average time and removed low-priority transactions (majority of which are without fees).
PS: Flat difficulty math is useless, we are talking about the real world, not about spherical horse in vacuum.
The Poisson Distribution model is a good way of understanding the process, when other real world variables are accounted for the first confirmation should on average come in around 3.5-4 minutes and subsequent confirmations 7-8minutes when one pays the appropriate Tx fee.
By reviewing the Poisson Distribution model one would expect that every day we can reasonably expect a block longer than 49 minutes, every week one longer than 69 minutes, every month 83 minutes.
TX without any fee is lower than you suggest on average :
