Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Well, the price being 252$, it means that everybody who who owns bitcoin thinks that they are worth more than 245$; but, on the other hand, everybody in the world who has some money to spare thinks that 1 BTC is not worth 255$.
You really are not much of an economist, are you ?
How does such an oversimplifying way to look at economic choice even go together with your ability to solve abstract mathematical problems?Okay. To name just one objection to such an incredibly naive model of the market:
Misrepresentation of your actual valuation for strategic purposes.
Similar to the misrepresentation, "tactical voting", in voting theory: sometimes it is individually rational for an actor not to cast a vote according to his sincere preference.
He is basically right this time. Since bitcoins are neither produced not destroyed (by consumption), the only basis for demand is people who think it is worth more, and the only source of supply is people who think it is worth less. Historic value could for some be of importance, but should not, again since they are not consumable there is no reference. Only expected future value should matter. Just like cold and heat, where cold is just absence of heat, and darkness and light, where darkness is just absense of light, bitcoin supply is the same as absence of demand. So in case of bitcoin (and other pure money types), there is really only one parameter: The demand.
The speculation is about projecting the demand for bitcoins in the future. Those never exposed to the idea are one source of future demand.
This not correct whatsoever, because future value is discounted by time preference.
So you will have to compensate for that in your personal valuation, not?