It would be ~16 k BTC if Pirate does not default and keeps up the current rates
If you want to propose this bet you would have to give met better odds then the 16000 times my money I make by investing with Pirate until the end of 2013 (1.07^75).
So your 17000 BTC (1k for tying up my funds) versus my 100 BTC and you pay the escrow fees and I'm game.
(If you mean the end of 2012 instead of 2013 Pirate would yield 4.74 times my money so your 500 BTC (26 BTC incentive) versus my 100 BTC + you pay the escrow fees would suffice).
This is a good point that I did not think about late last night when asking to bet. I agree that if some1 thought the 7% would continue for 1.5 yrs, why would they flat-bet me $100 as opposed to investing? One-Eyed made the similar point.
In the interest of continuing the real discussion that these Ponzis shouldn't be listed as Lending + all should be exposed, I will refrain from offering any more bets. Just saw a sure thing, i.e. there is no way this scam lasts until end 2013.