I don't think he was. The sentiment was really poor as you noted. I even made the argument that miners would start purchasing coins if difficulty fell too low in late 2011 and people thought I was insane back then. I could make a similar statement today and people would similarly disagree that there are both people willing to mine at a loss and former miners willing to buy to support the price.

On the topic of newbie jail, when did it first start? I don't seem to remember it and I've only been around maybe just a little bit longer than the rest of you, I thought.