Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation

Why to eat the cream while you can have a cake after the cake is finished?

Profit takers will be buying again later to get even more cake. Of course, it's possible that they'll never get a chance to buy cheaper (e.g. bitcoin profit takers who sold at $1).

Do not get me wrong, I am doing this also...
I have separate investment portfolio and trading portfolio.
Trading I am doing to get something to do which gives me also a little bit excitement. Investments I hold for long haul and am planning to sell if I need to purchase something bigger assuming the price goes as I wish.
Trading however is the gambling side of me and I am controlling it not to trade too much. If Monero goes viral, there are pretty high chance that at some point it is impossible to get Moneros even sub 100 usd levels and if my trading position is in other currencies, I have lost the opportunity cost of having the appreciating Moneros.

That's reasonable. But think about the current emission. What's $100 x 17,000? $1.7 million dollars. XMR can get to $100 and sit there for a few days. Can it stay there for any significant amount of time with every botnet and internet cafe owner on Earth dumping XMR every day? No.

I'm not sure about this. I would 100% agree if you had suggested a quick move to $5 or $10. But at $100 it is extremely widely reported and a huge popular phenomenon with million and millions of regular people mining it. 200 times the current hash rate is much bigger than botnets and maybe cafes. Many of those regular people are not going to dump small amount of "free" Monero they get from mining, and the excitement of that explosive rally would surely bring in new buyers. It could very well be self sustaining.

I just look to BTC as the example. But perhaps you're right. XMR's CPU mining could fundamentally change the game. But it's important for easy-to-use (double click to install) smart mining to be available to everyone for this to go viral on everyone's PC. In its current state, people won't invest the effort that it takes to install XMR, the mining software, and deal with it to make peanuts.

A move to 100 inspires a lot of user friendly packaging (work with a fairly low barrier to entry). We already have some fairly user friendly wallets especially if you include the open source wallets from other cryptonotes that could be pressed into service. Also botnets and double click to install are not the only possibilities. During gpu era pumps of btc ltc and doge many hobbiest gpu rigs and farms were built and a lot of coins accumulated. That would surely happen with a big xmr pump too