Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Is the expected waiting time for a block always 10 min?
by
DannyHamilton
on 06/03/2015, 19:14:22 UTC
"The die has no memory of what has been rolled recently..."
True, but...
If you "suffer through" an unusually long streak (high wait time for blocks, dice rolls under 7, etc), then at some point you have to get fast blocks or high dice rolls in order for the stats to normalize. Is it accurate to say the dice have long-term memory?  Smiley

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
Quote
It is important to remember that the LLN only applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of observations are considered. There is no principle that a small number of observations will coincide with the expected value or that a streak of one value will immediately be "balanced" by the others (see the gambler's fallacy).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
Quote
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e., independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false.