Re: I need bitcoin to be $690 to break even.....will I make it?
5 years would be ideal... after that I might give up
If you're still valuing your bitcoins based on an exchange rate, you're doing it wrong.
How else would I measure its purchasing power? If I don't value it by its purchasing power how else should it be valued??
Exchange rate != purchasing power.
Purchasing power parity is tough to determine, the Big Mac index that the Economist publishes is your best bet. What you should do is look at how many BTC are required to buy 1 Big Mac over the next 5 years (on average). You'll know deep in your bones what inflationary vs. deflationary means then
Thats not a good way to measure PP, you need a basket of goods not just 1 item to measure the real PP.
Try the CPI index or CPE, that will be better.
So basically check every item listed in the CPI, and see for how much you can buy it in Bitcoin directly, not the converted price from dollar.
That should see that bitcoin is deflationary. Don't even look at fiat because it can be misleading...