people were gabbling on the wall observer that the recent price runup to 290 was a pump to make more money off the auction. This "analysis" seemed ill considered to me because government functionaries aren't going to be getting a bonus based on the auction price and therefore have no incentive (unlike wall st) to pull these tricks. It seems more likely to me that the pull back right before the bidding opened was the artificial move... or even more likely it was a natural pullback that was amplified. An entity who engineered an artificial pullback would use this knowledge to keep its bid high while others might bid at current market. Obviously if this is true it is bullish... entirely speculation, but I'm interested in your thoughts...
from many years of trading, i would recommend ignoring news events in general, especially ones that have long lead times like the auction. certainly, natural disasters and "zero day" natural disasters will have effects if large enough. otherwise, following the technicals is the wisest approach as it's almost impossible to factor/price in all the myriad news events over short time periods even when it seems obvious. also, large swaths of ppl are just contrarians and love to invest based on doing something unexpected or going against the grain. thus, what's makes sense to you, may not make sense in terms of market responses to news events and explains why so many seemingly intelligent ppl get confused and emotionally distraught when prices move opposite to what they've reasoned.
now, having said that i believe more in technicals than fundamentals, it IS important to understand the fundamentals of the market you're investing in, especially with Bitcoin. assclown emotionally weak minded individuals, like tvbcof, have emotions that swing like the lilies which follow the price. which is precisely why all his FUD bottomed precisely @155 and have now gone quiet as we've rebounded. unbeknownst to even him, since that bottom he'll now sneak in a positive comment every once in a while in an attempt to be able to say "he called the bottom" way out in the future. if you understand Bitcoin, like i believe you do, then you will view huge pullbacks like the last >1 yr as a buying opportunity and ignore guys like tvbcof. this pullback has been a dream to fulfill one's greed when it comes to Bitcoin accumulation. this means understanding the economics, cryptography, mathematics, and game theory behind Bitcoin. this knowledge helps keep things in perspective that helps shield against your emotions due to the volatility.
Oh, this short term analysis is just a fascination/hobby for me; I bought on each 00 all the way down.