This adversity to risk may also be echoed by pools, who can restrict the blocks to <1MB indefinitely if they so choose.  The fork doesn't happen until a >1MB block hits the chain.

We could very well have a scarcity market for transactions for a period of time regardless of the merit (or lack of merit) in the proposal.  Miners may simply wait along with sardokan until there is some better assurance that creating a block isn't going to be invalidated, or that mining on it is going to end up on an orphan chain.