I respect your attempt to find order in the chaos, but you can't account for the human element in your equation. At the time of this writing, a very serious vulnerability has been discovered in bitcoin. this attack is known at the FRONT attack, i posted a thread about it earlier. Its going around on the mailing lists. The attack is of minor concern, as it would require alot of money/bitcoin to exploit and freeze the network, but its very real, and very much going to be a factor into the bitcoin price over the next few months. Entities like NSA and Terrorist groups probably have the resources to exploit this attack vector, if they so choose.