I have no idea if Ethereum will be a success. It has kind of been under the radar for a long time now, and I presume the IPO volume was exaggerated. But it will be interesting. I'm sure it will get a pump at some stage.
Vitalik's own blog detailed the distribution - top 100 addresses (addresses =/= people) in Ethereum control 45.7% (ctrl + F 45.7% in the below link).
https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/08/08/ether-sale-a-statistical-overview/ Addresses are not people, it is a common security practice to split your funds up into as many addresses as possible. So these top 100 addresses could be as few as 5 people.
MaidSafe IPO received laundered MtGox coins. It may have happened with Ethereum and I imagine people already found the evidence for it but are waiting for Ethereum to launch before exposing it.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=582731.0i was going to invest. but when i saw that ridiculous amount of btcs "invested" i backed up. The hype was there for sure, but that IPO sold too fast and too high volume for my liking. I sit on the sideline now and will watch it closely