Re: Provably fair gambling sites

If i write a simulation using martingale i will eventually bust, and that would happen with any other strategy, why dont you try it yourself, your reasoning is incorrect not mine, the ones that dont will bust the house? People are greedy, for example the guy who won 7k btc on just-dice and ended up loosing, people its always greedy and thats why a 0% house edge casino would still win

Ok, let's do it -- a simple simulation of a greedy player who never stops gambling (unless he busts):

Code:

var startingBankroll = 100;
var bet = 1;

while(true) {
var bankroll = startingBankroll;

for (var i = 1; bankroll > 0; ++i) {

bankroll += Math.random() < 0.5 ? bet : -bet;

if (i % 100000000 === 0)
console.log('Player has made', i , 'bets at a profit of:', bankroll-startingBankroll, ' BTC');
}
console.log('PLAYER BUST!');
}

Now run that, and watch as the vast majority of players will bust. But occasionally you'll get to a real gem like this guy:

Quote

Player has made 2300000000 bets at a profit of: 161962 BTC
Player has made 2400000000 bets at a profit of: 175434 BTC
Player has made 2500000000 bets at a profit of: 195960 BTC
Player has made 2600000000 bets at a profit of: 207738 BTC
Player has made 2700000000 bets at a profit of: 205418 BTC
Player has made 2800000000 bets at a profit of: 209382 BTC
Player has made 2900000000 bets at a profit of: 206398 BTC
Player has made 3000000000 bets at a profit of: 217148 BTC
Player has made 3100000000 bets at a profit of: 237032 BTC
Player has made 3200000000 bets at a profit of: 251848 BTC
Player has made 3300000000 bets at a profit of: 248634 BTC
Player has made 3400000000 bets at a profit of: 252256 BTC
Player has made 3500000000 bets at a profit of: 251060 BTC
Player has made 3600000000 bets at a profit of: 260898 BTC
Player has made 3700000000 bets at a profit of: 281134 BTC
Player has made 3800000000 bets at a profit of: 294792 BTC
Player has made 3900000000 bets at a profit of: 291088 BTC
Player has made 4000000000 bets at a profit of: 295030 BTC
Player has made 4100000000 bets at a profit of: 295540 BTC
Player has made 4200000000 bets at a profit of: 304886 BTC
Player has made 4300000000 bets at a profit of: 323828 BTC
Player has made 4400000000 bets at a profit of: 337964 BTC
Player has made 4500000000 bets at a profit of: 334380 BTC
Player has made 4600000000 bets at a profit of: 338690 BTC

You really think the casino can handle billions of more bets, hoping it can make its hundreds of thousands of bitcoins back? And do you honestly think a casino would be willing to expose itself to unbounded liability for 0 expected profit?! It doesn't work, never has, never will.

But perhaps, what we'll see is bet-match-making where 0% house edge is actually feasible. That way players can play with 0-edge, and casinos aren't the counter-party

I dont understand that at all, what is that player using? Martingale? And how is he making 4 bilion bets?

I'm no coder, but the code seems straightforward to follow... the player starts with 100 and bets 1 each go at 50%.

This player has not yet busted and is up 338k after 46 billion bets.

The point is espringe is correct in his analysis and his explanation.

People have it ingrained in their heads that 'the house always wins'. This is due to a house edge, even if its 0.01%. No casino could survive offering only 0% games.

If he is betting 1 btc each time, the expected profit in the long term is 0, how is he able to make 200.000 bitcoins? How is he able to win 200.000 more than loosing when the chances are 50/50? Makes no sense