Post
Topic
Board Gambling
Re: Negative house edge
by
patt0
on 24/03/2015, 11:06:42 UTC
@neoneros But they only lose money because the house has an advantage. If that changes and the player has an advantage, more players and the more they play, the more the house loses. In this case the chances aren't in favor of the casino.

It is accepted by most here that a positive house edge will ultimately wipe out your deposit (rather sooner than later). But we could try to look at this issue from another angle. That is, whether the house is predetermined to lose in the long run if it had a negative house edge? As I see it, a positive house edge doesn't guarantee per se that a casino won't suffer heavy losses, but why should it necessarily suffer them if it had a small negative edge (to attract new users)? In other words, how long will it take till we see a casino claiming just that?

I've never seen a mention of the negative house edge here, so I decided to create a new topic on this issue (and added a poll)

When you play on a 1% edge site, the site owner is actually taking the same bet but with a 1% +EV.
Will the site owner lose some bets? Surely they will.
Will the site owner go bankrupt? Very unlikely as long as he has a good bankroll management.

For the same token, if there is a negative house edge (+EV to the player) site, the players will very likely get a good profit as long as they bet according to the kelly formula.

I think the same way, that the situation will be mirrored in a sense. But could the negative house edge be set in such a manner and value that would still allow the house to profit without turning into a Ponzi and lying about its real house edge (for the sake of getting a competitive edge over other dice cites)?

The only way is if the house edge isn't fixed, I think. It could change so as to keep a small fixed profit for the casino. So if the casino was lucky in the last bets, the edge could go to negative. If the house lost money, the edge could be positive. But I think many people would not play when the edge was positive to the house, and only when it was negative xD