My numbers are in fact correct when calculating what you will actually get paid when you compare that to the predicted payout.
Sorry, but the numbers aren't correct (in this context). If you take luck as a measurement you can only say what happened in the past. Pool luck is not a constant thing. It's going up and down all the time and there is no way in predicting the future luck.
The best you can do is use the current rate of payout. Ancient history does not matter, but current luck, or lack thereof, is the only thing you can use. You are quite free to not look at current rates when choosing what pool to use, by all means, please go right ahead and use the one that is currently paying the least, be it due to luck or skimming or whatever.
P.S: In the future I will try not to share what works for me based on direct experience, I can see how well that works here when you have people trying to promote their own pools attacking you. I can however assure anyone who actually cares about getting the maximum return from their miners that my rates of payout using exactly the method described in that post are well above any of the pools I have personally tried on their own. Have a nice day, and by all means, Kano, continue attacking Nicehash in an effort to drive miners to your pool, that is pure class, bro!