Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Topic OP
market effect of a catastrophic design flaw
by
chaord
on 23/08/2010, 21:03:21 UTC
I apologize if this has been brought up before.  If it has, please feel free to merely direct me to the applicable thread.  As an investor, one of the hurdles I am having a hard time getting over is the following:  What happens to the market for bitcoins when/if a vastly superior design is found? What is the probability of an unquestionably superior design being found?

To talk about this, let's propose a hypothetical extreme.  Obviously, the technology for this is not possible right now, but I think it makes for a good argument, so please bear with me.  Let's say there is a new P2P currency that comes about, BitBox.  BitBox is a shoe-box and internet enabled device. Inside your BitBox are "goldbugs" which, when you put a gold coin, bullion, etc into the box they literally eat the gold and digitize it to be sent to someone else's BitBox.  Of course, that means that the goldbugs in the recipients BitBox regurgitate gold, but you get the point.  Essentially, what would happen to the value BitCoins if we could literally digitize/destroy gold in one location of the world and recreate it in another?  Assuming the existing BitCoin features stay in place that allow for a desired level of anonymity, I feel that many of us would prefer BitBox to BitCoin.  Of course, I know this sounds ridiculous.

So the question is this: if BitBox existed, would the market value of BitCoins literally drop to zero?  I tend to argue yes.  There would be a mass exodus from BitCoin over to BitBox (because BitBox has successfully bridged the virtual-to-real gap).  So, from an investing standpoint this is not good as the buyer's market for BitCoins would literally cease to exist, and anyone long BitCoins would be left with a very tired CPU and some worthless data.

Being an entrepreneur, I want to provide solutions.  Perhaps there will be a market for "design insurance."  This would be very similar to a Put Option.  What should the premium be for, say, a 10 year Put Option at the current exchange rate?