Post
Topic
Board Gambling
Re: Gambler's fallacy, does it exist?
by
Breakout1
on 26/03/2015, 06:48:26 UTC
I think that mathematically speaking, the Gambler's fallacy is correct. By that I mean, it's correct that it's a fallacy. The universe doesn't really care if you've hit a streak or are losing - every single bet, in perfect theory, is individualized. The odds are, mathematically, calculated by chance. However, in practice, there are tiny negligible variables in games that affect theory. In Craps or Roulette, for example, the way a person flicks their wrist when they throw the dice, or the negligible difference in force used when adding the ball to the wheel, can affect the odds. Could the brain somehow catch a pattern to optimize the odds in someone's favor when throwing dice? Highly unlikely, in fact, pretty much impossible. But, tiny unconscious self-correcting measures to get a better throw might change the odds by a sliver.

It comes down to: is there such a thing as luck? Or is it just the fact that every instance of existance in existance is an infinite chain of mathematical calculations taking variables (causes) to create sum/results (effects) which in turn continue to affect the world. I don't think luck is anything more than a human interpretation of these events and their coincidental patterns - out biggest skill, if anything, is our ability to see patterns in the world and learn from them in a logical way. That's how were able to read without deciphering each and every letter in a word, how we're able to instantly recognize what a door is, what a floor is, what the difference is between a car and a motorcycle, etc. Superstitions and woo are much the same way. Does that mean there is no point to gambling? Hell no. While I don't think luck exists in a quantifiable way, curiosity just makes the idea of doing something over and over again for the chance of beating the odds for fortune very attractive. So, in a way of perception, luck does exist - it's the descriptor for coincidence. The question then is if there is a thing such as good luck or bad luck, some force that affects coincidence. That, I don't believe. You can have good luck in an instance, which means that you've beaten the odds in that particular moment, but that luck doesn't realistically apply to the next instance. It was just a coincidence - a lucky coincidence.

My 2 Satoshi, if anything.