Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Is deflation truly that bad for an economy?
by
dinofelis
on 27/03/2015, 14:25:53 UTC
I'm talking about what happens in reality. And in reality deflation as well as inflation has beginning.

In fact, a CHANGE is relative.

If we have a constant inflation rate of 10%, a real interest rate of 5% (so a nominal interest rate of 15%), and SUDDENLY the inflation rate drops to 2%, then this is entirely equivalent to having initially an inflation rate of 3% and suddenly having a deflation of 5%.

Indeed, if you had a ROI of 8% (so 3% higher than the real rate, you expect a gain of 3% hence), and you borrowed $1000 at 15%, you were going to sell at 1080 (ROI) + 100 (inflation) = 1180.  You would have to pay 150 interest.  So you would make $30 profit.

However, you have borrowed your $1000 at 15%, and now inflation turns out to be only 2%.  So you will only sell at 1080 + 20 = 1100.  However, you still have to pay your 150 interest ===> you make unexpectedly a loss of $50 because of the unexpected drop in inflation.