Although I do think that it will come sooner, the ETA has been decreasing. Since I've been following the website, I've seen it be mid August, early August now it's late July.
I've been following it too, and keeping the results
.Code:
Mon Sep 1 12:01:01 CEST 2014 Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-05 13:21:02 UTC (100 weeks, 4 days, 7 hours, 20 minutes)
Wed Oct 1 12:01:01 CEST 2014 Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-02 12:21:02 UTC (95 weeks, 6 days, 6 hours, 20 minutes)
Sat Nov 1 12:01:01 CET 2014 Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-01 03:51:02 UTC (91 weeks, 1 day, 20 hours, 50 minutes)
Mon Dec 1 12:01:01 CET 2014 Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-07-31 10:01:02 UTC (86 weeks, 6 days, 3 hours)
Thu Jan 1 12:01:01 CET 2015 Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-07-31 03:11:01 UTC (82 weeks, 2 days, 20 hours, 10 minutes)
Sat Feb 7 11:01:01 GMT 2015 Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-07-30 04:31:01 UTC (76 weeks, 6 days, 21 hours, 30 minutes)
Mon Mar 2 07:31:01 GMT 2015 Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-07-29 09:41:14 UTC (73 weeks, 4 days, 7 hours, 10 minutes)
Sat Mar 28 11:01:01 GMT 2015 Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-07-28 21:21:01 UTC (69 weeks, 5 days, 15 hours, 20 minutes)
Wed Oct 1 12:01:01 CEST 2014 Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-02 12:21:02 UTC (95 weeks, 6 days, 6 hours, 20 minutes)
Sat Nov 1 12:01:01 CET 2014 Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-08-01 03:51:02 UTC (91 weeks, 1 day, 20 hours, 50 minutes)
Mon Dec 1 12:01:01 CET 2014 Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-07-31 10:01:02 UTC (86 weeks, 6 days, 3 hours)
Thu Jan 1 12:01:01 CET 2015 Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-07-31 03:11:01 UTC (82 weeks, 2 days, 20 hours, 10 minutes)
Sat Feb 7 11:01:01 GMT 2015 Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-07-30 04:31:01 UTC (76 weeks, 6 days, 21 hours, 30 minutes)
Mon Mar 2 07:31:01 GMT 2015 Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-07-29 09:41:14 UTC (73 weeks, 4 days, 7 hours, 10 minutes)
Sat Mar 28 11:01:01 GMT 2015 Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-07-28 21:21:01 UTC (69 weeks, 5 days, 15 hours, 20 minutes)
Decreasing yeah, but it's been stuck at end of July for some months. At the same time, if we assume that the mining power will keep increasing like it did in the previous N blocks (N==20), these are the results:
Code:
Mon Dec 1 12:02:01 CET 2014 halving on 2016-05-26 23:12:28+0200
Thu Jan 1 12:02:01 CET 2015 halving on 2016-06-11 13:25:20+0200
Sat Feb 7 11:02:01 GMT 2015 halving on 2016-06-19 03:12:22+0100
Mon Mar 2 07:32:01 GMT 2015 halving on 2016-06-24 03:28:57+0100
Sat Mar 28 11:02:01 GMT 2015 halving on 2016-07-03 23:00:04+0100
Thu Jan 1 12:02:01 CET 2015 halving on 2016-06-11 13:25:20+0200
Sat Feb 7 11:02:01 GMT 2015 halving on 2016-06-19 03:12:22+0100
Mon Mar 2 07:32:01 GMT 2015 halving on 2016-06-24 03:28:57+0100
Sat Mar 28 11:02:01 GMT 2015 halving on 2016-07-03 23:00:04+0100
Rapidly went through June and entered July, and keeps going forward. At this point I believe it's safe to say that the halving would occur in the second half of July 2016.