Just a theory, but I have a gut feeling that if we witness another bubble cycle, the majority of traders will underestimate the peak, possibly by a significant amount.
Why?
IMO the last two bubbles were nothing in the grand scheme of things. Even in the runup to 1200 USD, I would have guessed that maybe 1 in 10 people would have heard of Bitcoin. I think that figure could well be closer to 5 in 10 by now.
We have the two largest stock exchanges (NYSE, NASDAQ) giving credibility to the technology, and people seem to be educating themselves more so than they would have tended to a few years back
We will hopefully have the BIT providing access for institutional investment.
Wall street want their slice of the pie. But the pie is too small right now. So they're gonna have to make it bigger.
Why not load up now, drive the price to tens of thousands of dollars, and then cash out for ridiculous profits before repeating the whole thing.
This wouldn't even be market manipulation - simply buying an asset deemed to be undervalued, and then selling at profit. Natural market forces would drive the bubble thus nobody could be accused of manipulation, and it would be very easy money.
Am I missing something, or is this whole thing a lot more simple than most people are willing to believe?
Sound nice but rather not. When it went from 1200 to current price right now, I just wonder what's the effect in terms of loss of reputation. What does people see in bitcoin? As a reliable currency? It will be good for those people who are looking to make a nice profit. But if you consider long term the negative effect is more profound and less people is going to trust bitcoin. As in previous thread, I've made it clear that we don't need wall street. These people are just there to make money and they don't care what the decentralization, low cost cross border transaction and the rest means to them.