I stopped right there. Theory and gut feeling shouldn't be used in the same sentence... Especially when it relates to something that could make you lose some money.
Isn't that how all theories are developed before researched or proven/unproven? "I have a gut feeling we don't actually have all the planets and stars revolve around us, but we revolve around the sun..."
Sure. But that's astronomy. This is money. And any decision about money that involves a "gut feeling" would mostly lead to losses.