I made a new graph with tail emission :

www.googledrive.com/host/0B8ddMzM9RWuROEVrbnE0U1RXaTQ

The model makes following assumptions :
* genesis block @ april 18 2014 00:00:00 (according to Moneroblocks.eu the first block was mined @ 2014-04-18 10:49:53 UTC, but something isn't working properly in my javascript code)
* every block gets mined exactly every 60sec
* it doesn't take penalties into account
* every block reward gets calculated according to the formula : (M - A) * 2^-20 * 10^-12 with A the current supply and M = Atomic Units = 2⁶⁴-1 and the calculated block reward is added to the current supply UNTIL the calculated block reward <=0.3 XMR
* Whenever the calculated block reward for block x <=0.3XMR the actual block reward for block x to block x+infinity becomes exactly 0.3XMR

Some calculations I made with this model (it calculates 26280000 blocks ~ 50 years) :
* first block with a calculated block reward < 0.3XMR is block 4269201 ~ 2022-4-30 (year 9) with a current supply = 98.29469862785216% of M
* block 5317920 ~ 2024-4-27 (year 11) is the first block for which the current supply >= 100% of M (from now on current supply grows greater than M ?)
* year over year inflation at the end of year 9 = 0.874171704788429%. (Indeed ~0.9% see Smooth's reply)
* year over year inflation is calculated every year. You can look at them by pressing F12 in your browser.

Javascript code is very messy, so I could have made a mistake. If something is wrong with my reasoning and assumptions for this model, or any suggestions to fine-tune the model, please tell me.

EDIT : definitions of A and M