I'm unsure about how to calculate it based on the target system. That is a nuance of bitcoin I am not 100% fluent in yet.
Assuming your math is right, you are stating the probability that your single hash will solve the share of difficulty 1.
Then you'd have to convert the probability into average time for success. To excel!
I simulated out only 1000 hash pulls so im not surprised I didn't get any success. Tired 100,000 hash pulls and got overflows
The method that you would use to convert the probability into average time is simulating many many (1,000,000+) hashes, figure out your hash rate (how fast you can generate 1,000,000 hashes) and count your successes. Sadly significant figures and overflow issues make this sort of calculation in excel difficult.
I think using my math in the 2nd post may be easier.
Assuming your math is right, you are stating the probability that your single hash will solve the share of difficulty 1.
Then you'd have to convert the probability into average time for success. To excel!
I simulated out only 1000 hash pulls so im not surprised I didn't get any success. Tired 100,000 hash pulls and got overflows
The method that you would use to convert the probability into average time is simulating many many (1,000,000+) hashes, figure out your hash rate (how fast you can generate 1,000,000 hashes) and count your successes. Sadly significant figures and overflow issues make this sort of calculation in excel difficult.
I think using my math in the 2nd post may be easier.