It depends completely on how they go about the refund.
If they have 200k bitcoins and decide to only offer cash refunds, then they have to sell 200k bitcoins, which will crash the market.

If they already have the cash and decide to refund in cash, then you have lots of crypto fans with a bit of extra cash in their pockets.  That must result in extra buying, which would be good for the price.

I know that if I get cash, I'll probably put it back into bitcoin, if I get bitcoin, it will stay in bitcoin.  The first is better for the price.