Yes, they´ll try something for the sake of appearances most likely. The country is falling apart, the economy is collapsing so they´ll need some diversions. And the mob wants them to poke the big bad bear. But I doubt much will come of it.
Now; as for the strategy of the Donbass forces maybe they could try something on the flank down there at the sea of Azov if the junta/mob attacks in the center.
not stupid, but I prefer this one : if they move, nuke your way to Paris and beyond as soon as you have a serious abms in place... it's a mindset that it's attacking Russia, not people, as long as the people will be alive the mindset will reproduce.
question when you say country you take all the nato members and vassal as one? it's seem more appropriate, time to name this entity... suggestions?