But it isn't done yet. Pirate hasn't paid everyone back yet. If he does, it will most likely result in a flooding of the market which will drop the price. If he runs off, the market will rally as everyone who invested with him tries to get back into the game.
That seems like a fairly baseless assumption to me.
How so? If people get their coins back, do you not think that many of them will sell to try and get out?